终结者2

The yield on a 10-year Treasury reached 5% for 1st time since 2007. Why that matters_我的网站

一 |     　　行业数据显示，银行业净利润的“K型分化”仍然明显。

二 | 　　上半年，全国银行业金融机构累计实现净利润约1.24万亿元，同比微降0.6%。    NEW YORK -- The yield on the 10-year Treasury has reached 5% for the first time since 2007. That matters for everyone, not just Wall Street. Treasury yields have been climbing rapidly, with the 10-year yield rallying from less than 3.50% during the spring and from just 0.50% early in the pandemic. Monday morning, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was at 4.96% after hitting 5.02% earlier. The jump means the U.S. government must pay more to borrow money from investors to cover its spending.It also directly affects people around the world, because the 10-year Treasury yield is the centerpiece of the global financial system and helps set prices for all kinds of other loans and investments. Besides making it more expensive for U.S. homebuyers to buy a house with a mortgage, higher yields also put downward pressure on prices for everything from stocks to cryptocurrencies. Eventually, they could help cause companies to lay off more workers. Higher yields mark a sharp turnaround for a generation of consumers and investors who have known pretty much just low yields, as central banks kept benchmark interest rates pinned at nearly zero. Such low rates let people borrow money more easily, which helped economies to strengthen following the 2008 financial crisis, the European debt crisis and other maladies including, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. The low rates led to rising prices for houses, stocks and other investments, but they may also have encouraged too much risk-taking and spurred investment bubbles.Now, central banks are more concerned with getting high inflation under control. To do that, they raise interest rates and hope the higher costs to borrow will starve inflation of its fuel by bringing down spending. The Fed's main interest rate affects extremely short-term loans, those that banks charge overnight. The Fed has already pulled its federal funds rate to the highest level since 2001, and it's debating whether to hike it one more time. Either way, it's signaled plans to keep rates high for a while to successfully suffocate inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield has been catching up to the Fed's main interest rate after a string of reports has shown the U.S. economy remains remarkably resilient. While that calms worries about a possible recession caused by high rates, it could also keep upward pressure on inflation and shorter-term rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that many other factors could be contributing to the swift rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. They include the U.S. government's big deficits, which require more federal borrowing, and the Fed's ongoing efforts to reduce its trove of bond investments built earlier to keep yields low. On the wonkier side, bond prices have also been falling in tandem with stock prices more often than they used to. That's unnerving for investors who usually see bonds as the safer part of their portfolios, and it could be pushing them to demand higher yields to own them.The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield most directly means the U.S. government has to pay more to borrow money for 10 years. But because the 10-year yield is the reference point for financial markets, it also quickly filters out into all kinds of loans. Even for companies with the best credit ratings, the interest rates they borrow at are set by adding some extra on top of whatever the U.S. government is paying for its Treasurys. Borrowers with worse credit ratings have to pay more extra than those seen as good bets to repay their debts.More expensive borrowing keep U.S. households from spending as much and companies from expanding as much, which should eventually hit overall U.S. economic activity. More immediately, because a 10-year Treasury is seen as one of the safest possible investments on the planet, its yield swiftly sways prices for all kinds of investments. When a super-safe Treasury is paying much more in interest, investors feel less need to pay high prices for a Big Tech stocks, cryptocurrency or other investment that carries more risk. It's a big reason the S&P 500 has seen its gain for the year so far tumble from 19.5% at the end of July to 10% as of Friday. Higher U.S. yields also attract more investments from abroad, which means investors are increasingly swapping their currencies for U.S. dollars. Since the end of July, the U.S. dollar has climbed roughly 4% against the euro, 5% against the British pound and 6% against the Australian dollar. While a stronger dollar helps U.S. tourists buy more stuff when they're abroad, it can also add financial pressure and heighten inflation for other countries, particularly in the developing world. Even for U.S. bond investors, the swift rise in bond yields has brought losses of their own. When new bonds are paying higher yields, it makes the older, lower-yielding bonds already sitting in investors' portfolios or mutual funds less attractive and knocks down their price.The largest U.S. bond mutual fund has lost roughly 3% so far in 2023 and is on track for a third straight yearly loss. That's never happened since its birth in 1987.。

三 | 其中，国有大行净利润同比增长1.58%，股份制银行下降3.42%，农商行下降12.56%，城商行增长7.41%。　　在全行业净利润同比下降的背景下，城商行成为少数逆势向上的板块。重庆银行则又一次跑在了板块前列。　　本周四晚间，重庆银行披露《2026年半年度报告》：该行实现营业收入同比增长10.79%，净利润同比增长10.97%。　　从行业净利润整体下降，到城商行增长7.41%，再到重庆银行增长10.97%——板块走势上下分化，呈现出明显的“K型”。分化并非只是方向差异，更是不同银行经营成色的体现。拆解这份城商行“领头羊”半年报，有六个维度值得关注。　　01　　连续四个季度“双十”增长，A股上市银行唯一　　统筹收入成本，经营效益向优向好。　　该行的营业收入和净利润已经连续四个季度保持“双10%”增长，今年一季度甚至为“双11%”增长。在A股42家上市银行中，找不出第二家。　　“双十”增长并非无所依托。

四 | 截至6月末，该行集团资产总额11089.09亿元，较上年末增长751.83亿元，增幅7.27%；法人口径资产总额10428.18亿元，较上年末增长669.34亿元，增幅6.86%，两个口径均站上万亿台阶。此外，该行年化加权平均净资产收益率达12.03%，较上年同期提升0.51个百分点。　　在行业净息差仅1.41%的环境中，该行净利润与净资产收益率（ROE）实现同步提升，表明资本回报效率正进入新的上升通道。这一表现并非依靠短期冲刺，也非通过财务与拨备调节的数字游戏实现，更多来自经营效率和资本使用效率的持续改善。　　02　　净息差逆势回升，改善幅度领先　　上半年，全国银行业金融机构净息差为1.41%，较一季度回升1个基点，是2022年以来首次单季环比回升；城商行板块净息差环比回升2个基点至1.40%。　　重庆银行净利息收益率较上年同期上升7个基点至1.46%，净利差较上年同期上升5个基点至1.40%。

五 | 其中，净利息收益率回升幅度是全国银行业平均回升幅度的7倍，是城商行板块平均回升幅度的3.5倍。　　负债成本的改善提供了支撑。上半年，该行对公存款付息率较年初下降41个基点，个人定期存款平均成本率从2.86%降至2.39%。　　在全国银行业净息差仍处于“保1.4”阶段时，一家城商行将净利息收益率同比提升7个基点至1.46%，已属不易。　　03　　贷款与对公存款增量均为重庆第一　　报告显示，重庆银行贷款总额5824.59亿元，较上年末增加511.75亿元，增幅9.63%，贷款余额增量位列重庆市第一。　　存款端，该行存款总额6272.02亿元，较上年末增加614.98亿元，增幅10.87%。其中，对公存款余额增量连续两年居重庆市第一，储蓄存款余额增量连续两年居重庆市第二。　　信贷投放与区域重大战略、实体经济同频。上半年，该行服务成渝地区双城经济圈建设融资余额较上年末增长14.6%，服务西部陆海新通道建设融资余额增长9.3%，科技型企业贷款余额增长27.3%，制造业贷款余额增长13%。　　更关键的是，该行存款增速高于贷款增速，存款基本盘仍在扩大；流动性覆盖率远超监管标准，可见该行发展并未以牺牲安全为代价，资金精准导向，把存款高效配置到了实体经济中。　　04　　普惠小微贷款余额保持西部上市城商行首位　　重庆金融监管局发布的《关于2025年度银行业金融机构小微企业金融服务监管评价获评一级、二级机构的通报》中，重庆银行获评最高等级“一级”，是重庆当地法人银行中唯一一家连续7年荣获“一级”的机构。　　截至6月末，该行小微企业贷款余额2325.00亿元；普惠小微贷款余额776.47亿元，规模稳居西部上市城商行第一。同期，普惠小微贷款不良率、关注率较2025年末继续“双降”，不良生成率降至近三年新低。

六 | 　　在大型银行下沉、中小银行普惠业务承压的背景下，“小微企业的银行”这一标签，正在成为重庆银行穿越周期的护城河。　　05　　不良贷款率1.11%，远低于全国城商行均值　　截至6月末，全国商业银行不良贷款率1.52%，城商行板块1.87%。

七 | 重庆银行不良贷款率为1.11%，较全国商业银行均值低41个基点，较城商行板块均值低76个基点，不到城商行均值的六成。　　趋势同样关键。该行不良贷款率逐季改善，6月末创下近四年新低。

八 | 从五级分类看，关注类贷款占比1.81%，较上年末下降0.13个百分点；不良贷款与逾期90天以上贷款比值为1.16，显示风险识别较为主动，并非等到逾期90天才被动认定。　　同时，该行拨备覆盖率247.31%，高出全国商业银行均值44个百分点，高出城商行板块均值76个百分点。

九 | 规模扩张、风险下降、安全垫增厚同时出现，在当下银行业并不多见。

十 | 　　06　　股价连续四年正收益，股东回报稳定　　A股42家上市银行中，仅8家连续4年实现正收益，重庆银行是其中之一。

十一 | 2025年，该行A股涨幅21.64%，在42家A股上市银行中排名第4，在17家上市城商行中位列第二；H股涨幅37.26%，在30家港股上市内地银行中排名第六。　　股东回报方面，2025年度该行现金分红15.99亿元，分红比例维持在30%高位；自回归A股以来，现金分红比例稳定在30%，连续五年保持较高且稳定的分红水平。　　机构评级方面，今年以来中信证券、招商证券、中泰证券、国泰海通证券、银河证券、浙商证券等多家券商给予“买入”“增持”“推荐”或“优于大市”评级。　　当市场仍在争论净息差底部何在，重庆银行却以六组关键数据，诠释了“K型分化”下质量与效益协同发展的实践路径。

十二 | 　　衡量一家银行的坐标，不再只是资产、营收和净利润的规模，而是增长是否可持续、定价是否有韧性、投放是否有效、风险是否可控、回报是否稳定。　　从这个角度看，重庆银行这份半年报，不只是一份“双十增长”的利润表，更是一份有质量、有韧性、有回应的经营答卷。责任编辑：孙同怀。

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